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| General CC as he announces the coup surrounded by the pope, the Azhar Sheikh among others. |
1.Firstly, is it a military coup? clearing Ideological misconceptions.
2.Why did the revolution underestimate the threat?
3.Egyptian opposition front after the coup.
4.The ambiguity in most official international reactions.
5.What now?
1. Firstly, Is it a coup? Clearing ideological misconceptions:
The military, the christian clergy, the muslim official clergy, the Mubarak era court system and rich families represented by privately owned media backed the coup.
This makes it a textbook military coup originating from a reactionary movement that attempted a multitude of coup scenarios already (Breaking into Alitihadia presidential palace, popular upheaval because of acute oil shortages that were mysteriously instantaneously resolved after the coup, and unreformed Mubarak-era court rulings banning democratically elected institutions).
This is reinforced by the return of media and freedom of expression repression (5 anti-coup channels were closed down and other stations_including Aljazeera_ are suffering interferences). The coup officials show a complete disrespect for the law and human rights by illegally kidnapping the president himself and other political activists.
Regarding the pretext of protesters on the 30th being behind a second revolution: protesting is constitutionally protected but not a constitutional power transition method according to the Egyptian constitution. The numbers of pro-coup protests has been blown. opposition relies on a google estimate (30 million) , however google denies issuing such a statement. Middle east monitor showcased how low the pro-coup protesters’ advertised numbers just don’t add up.
If the facts are this clear, why is there even a question?
US armament industry for example would suffer losing a pivotal market if Obama-administration was to openly denote what happened as a coup. That would deprive them of 1.5 billions of us taxpayer military aid to Egypt that de facto means subsidies for us arms manufacturers(most of the money is spent on US made military equipment)!
Moreover some leftists and progressive western thinkers cannot be trenchant get over the ideological affiliation of Mohamed Morsi, "Political Islam". This is quite naive and dogmatic: the muslim brotherhood is the unofficial and anti status quo, (even proletarian) expression of political islam in egypt). Directly opposed to Al Qaeda and alike groups, the muslim brotherhood embraced Democracy a chief demand for decades. While most secular parties in the Arab world remain a one-man show, the Muslim brotherhood enjoys internal democratic mechanisms and institutions. However, the muslim Azhar clergy, backing the coup, is the official pro-mubarak institution representing a lingering line of the clergy class that had no problems coexisting with the mubarak regime and was rather a part of it! On principle, it should be left to the egyptian voters to decide who will enjoys their vote/confidence: and for 5 consecutive elections after revolution the muslim brotherhood(or the referendum choice the MB backed) was always majoritary. A coup, just has to be called a coup! That is principle not opinion. Agreeing with the MB or not is an irrelevant question at this point and raising such “concerns” now is insensitive.
Lastly, an interesting observation can be made about the “kind” of crowd that gathered on the 30th June. Human rights watch spoke of horrific levels of sexual abuse in Tahrir square. Over 91 women (and some report even infants) were sexually abused and mob raped! In huge crowds (of supposed political activists) one would expect minor incidents. However entire mobs practiced rape and they were apparently so numerous that the rest of the protesters couldn’t intervene. In Egyptian revolutionary vocabulary, the June 30th crowds are mainly fouloul (Pro-Mubarak) and Baltajia (mercenaries or bandits or rapists).
2. Why did the revolution underestimate the threat?
The Egyptian revolution or more appropriately the egyptian society and in it’s core its most organized and numerous faction, the muslim brotherhood, weakened the revolution through key decisions.
The same group that orchestrated Mubarak’s removal, General Tantawi’s ouster (it is now clear Morsi’s constitutional decree was only a facade for a new generation of generals willing to oust oder generals) ousted President-elect Morsi. General CC, official leader of the coup is the same general that came out before the presidential elections to defend the military’s practice of performing virginity checks on female protesters against the military junta!
International (USA) acceptance or welcoming of the revolution provided a fake sense of security. This acceptance evaporated instantaneously as power balances shifted.
The muslim brotherhood is reluctant to admit that it was actually very distant from decision making or applying policies by the largely corrupt Egyptian state. There was fake sense of normality that Mohamed morsi partook in by appearing like a president who was actually ruling and able to "achieve goals". This threw the weight of the inevitable failures of the state onto the president rather than the deep-state that prevented any serious improvements to prepare for the coup. “Telling the truth” openly and ousting as many corrupt officials in revolutionary popular manners would have been more beneficial for Egypt!
Ultimately, these factors had Morsi seized easily (he could have been surrounded by millions of his supports for lack of better judgment). The Egyptian revolution (represented by all of its democratic institutional achievements: the parliament and the president) is suffering the strongest wave of the anti-revolution headed by reactionary forces.
3. Egyptian opposition front after the coup:
The Egyptian political powers that back the military coup _on the first Egyptian civilian president-elect_ obtained a few government ministries and presidential posts. The unreformed Mubarak-era and the private media portrays them as leaders and victories that capitalized on their threat to oust morsi. However, the leftist and liberal front has completely renounced and betrayed any sense of democracy, respect for the law or the principle of peaceful transition of power! Ultimately betraying the Egyptian revolution and their own Ideological core values will destroy their already extinguished popularity. Coup Histories also tells us that after a Military-coup stabilizes, it’s civilian political front is always next to be terminated and marginalized (unpopular and unarmed, they have no bargaining chip in a militaristic regime!)
It is useful to point out (especially for any reluctant western thinker) that the extremist salafists islamist party, Nour Party, backs the coup. This means that the struggle cannot be simplified to Islamists Vs secular even when one oversimplifies.
4. Ambiguity in most official International reactions:
Some regimes have been blunt in their support of the coup: The Saudi Kingdom and The United Arab Emirates. They both pledged and provided enormous amounts of financial support: 8 Billions of USD! (this should be troublesome for any progressive western thinkers who backs the coup or choose to stand idle). The USA’s and EU’s general avoidance of condemning the coup is particularly astonishing. Especially given the rhetoric that both advance about "spreading democracy". An explanation could be Morsi’s plans (the Egyptian revolution at large) strategic implication threatening the core of western interests in the middle east: Egypt is the world’s largest grains importer and under the 1 year old democracy it already managed to slash its share of imported grains! Egypt also controls the Suez canal and president-elect Morsi’s chief economic plan was to build a mega-service and industrial area on its shores. This would endanger the economies of US allies such as the United Arab emirates (where port services are a major trade and Egyptian activities in the area enjoy a geographical and obvious economic advantage. Ships won't have to enter the Persian gulf but would rather purchase the same services on their route through the Suez canal). Another factor is Morsi's Ideology and the relations with Israel. It is a fact that most Israelis see Islamists as an existential threat. President Morsi proved very strict in adhering to international laws and to the terms of the peace treaty with Tel-Aviv. He even brokered a solid peace treaty between Gaza and Israel that continues to hold as I write these words.
5. What now?
As I already pointed out, political parties that chose to back the coup are de facto politically obsolete. The secular salvation front and the extremist Salafist Islamist party, Nour party will have no political future in modern Egypt. However I solemnly wish that when time comes and the coup Generals decide to slaughter them, there would be democratic forces to defend them.
The Egyptian coup authorities seem determined to end the Rabaa Adawia and other sit ins calling for a return to democracy. They have shown willingness to shed civilian blood and use live rounds to disperse crowds! The sit inners are logically at a physical disadvantage facing the strongest military in Africa and the Arab world. Even though the sit ins assemble huge crowds, the unreformed Mubarak-era security apparatus could use a multitude of crowd-dispersing methods: gradual brutal force, water and supplies blockade, nerve gas and maybe making the grounds unbearable by flooding them with sewer water in Cairo’s hot summer...
The sit inners and anti-coup protesters are well aware of the price to be payed to resume the democratic process. They have destabilized the military coup by their 30 days strong sit in and continual protests. So far, the revolutionary anti-coup momentum shows no signs of slowing momentum. The atrocities that the Coup authorities are committing are drawing in more sectors of the Egyptian society, especially the culturally sensitive slaughter of women’s marches!
In conclusion and realistically, it is a question of whether coup leader, general CC, will have a chance to flee or will be tried. For the coup political supporters who will be left behind when Morsi returns I profess Morsi will quote Hugo Chavez after he overcame a similar military coup in 2002: “I forgive you, evil people”. 
